SCMP - Monday, December 26, 2005
Yuan reform is gradual, says banker

 

CHAN SIU-SIN

China will not be rushed into reforming its currency regime, a central bank official told Xinhua.

But the value of the yuan could fall - not rise - if the inflow of foreign funds continued at the present pace, he said.

Yuan reform was taking the shape of improvements in the market mechanism rather than revaluation, the official said.

"The timetable [for yuan reform] depends on ... the market's maturity and the regulator's ability. Therefore, China will take a `walk-and-see' position, instead of making any great leap forward."

The Xinhua report also quoted the Shanghai Securities News, which suggested that the People's Bank of China might widen the trading band of the yuan against the US dollar.

"Industry insiders speculate that the central bank may widen the yuan's fluctuation range against the US dollar, for example, to 3 per cent," it said.

The Xinhua report came after the National Bureau of Statistics last week revised China's gross domestic product for last year - up 16.8 per cent to 15.99 trillion yuan.

The revision was expected to give more ammunition to the US to push Beijing for faster and greater revaluation.

But the official said the yuan - which had risen twice as many times as it had fallen over the past five months - could depreciate rather than appreciate.

"Flexibility and fluctuations are the key words, instead of revaluation," he said.

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