SCMP - Saturday, December 31, 2005
Yuan could see pressure from falling greenback

 

REUTERS in Beijing

China is on track for robust growth next year but a drop in the value of the US dollar could add to pressure on the yuan and erode the country's foreign currency reserves, according to an adviser to the central bank.

The economy should be able to grow by about 9 per cent next year, considering the government's ability to spur demand with its budget to offset slowing export and investment growth, Yu Yongding was quoted as saying by the China Securities Journal.

"Because China's fiscal situation is relatively sound, the government has relatively great leeway to use expansionary fiscal policy," said Mr Yu, a prominent academic who sits on the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee.

The central government would probably raise salaries next year, which would help push up wages nationwide, he said.

But Mr Yu warned that the US might stop raising interest rates next year and start guiding the dollar down, putting upward pressure on the yuan.

"More seriously, China's economy would take a big hit if the US dollar weakened sharply due to such factors as a bursting of the US property bubble," he said. "The loss for China's foreign exchange reserves would be serious."

At the end of September, China had US$769 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

Mr Yu has previously said the US dollar, which has strengthened on global markets in recent months, would be vulnerable if the US continued to run a huge current account deficit.

The yuan has appreciated a further 0.48 per cent against the US dollar since a landmark 2.1 per cent revaluation on July 21.

Mr Yu said the central bank should not alter its basically stable monetary policy. Merely expanding money supply would not help firms get more loans, because lenders had been under pressure to strengthen risk controls.

"Some firms feel bank credit is tight, but that's from banks' efforts to tighten up risk controls rather than monetary policy. We can't resolve the credit problem by expanding the money supply."

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